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Analyzing simulation results using Scenario Planner

6 Tasks

30 mins

Visible to: All users
Beginner
Pega Customer Decision Hub '24.1
English
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Scenario

U+ Bank is currently cross-selling on the web by showing various credit cards to its customers in Pega Customer Decision Hub™.

The bank now wants to do a "what-if" analysis to learn what the action distribution becomes if they change the eligibility criteria for the Standard and Rewards credit cards. The result can help the bank to understand the opportunity cost or gain in modifying the eligibility criteria.

Use the following credentials to log in to the exercise system:

Role User name Password
Next-Best-Action Designer NBADesigner rules
Team Lead TeamLead rules

Your assignment consists of the following tasks:

Task 1: Create a Scenario Planner simulation for the existing engagement policy conditions

Create a Scenario Planner simulation. Use the SampledCustomers_Inbound data set as the audience and engagement policy as the simulation scope.

Task 2: Create a change request to update the action-level eligibility condition

Submit a change request to update the existing actions; to update an action-level eligibility of Standard card and Rewards card actions to manually nudge the offers.

Action Action eligibility

Standard card

Relationship length in days ≤ 180 days

Rewards card

Relationship length in days ≤ 180 days

Task 3: Prioritize the created change request

As a Team Lead, assign a rank of 1 to the change request that the NBA Designer submits.

Task 4: Complete action build tasks

As an NBA Designer, complete the two build tasks that the system generates to update the Standard and Rewards card actions that are defined in the change request.

Task 5: Create a Scenario Planner simulation for modified engagement policy conditions

Create a Scenario Planner simulation. Use the SampledCustomers_Inbound data set as the audience and engagement policy as the simulation scope.

Task 6: Analyze the simulation results in Scenario Planner

Analyze the two simulations in Scenario Planner to understand the effects of modifying the engagement policy conditions. Answer the following questions:

  1. What is the effect of modifying the eligibility condition? Is there any indication of an opportunity cost or opportunity gain?
  2. How does the modification of eligibility condition affect the percentage of accepts?
  3. Which actions trade off if the bank does not apply the engagement policy changes, and what is the volume?
  4. How often is the Rewards card sent or displayed to customers before and after applying the engagement policy change?
  5. How many customers are likely to accept the Rewards Plus card when the engagement policy changes apply?
  6. Which action generates the most significant opportunity cost when the engagement policy changes apply?
  7. Which action generates the most significant opportunity gain when the engagement policy changes apply?
  8. Which scenario is more profitable for the business?

 

You must initiate your own Pega instance to complete this Challenge.

Initialization may take up to 5 minutes so please be patient.

Challenge Walkthrough

Detailed Tasks

1 Create a Scenario Planner simulation for the existing engagement policy conditions

  1. On the exercise system landing page, click Pega InfinityTM to log in to Customer Decision Hub.
  2. Log in to Customer Decision Hub as a Next-Best-Action Designer:
    1. In the User name field, enter NBADesigner.
    2. In the Password field, enter rules.
  3. In the navigation pane of Customer Decision Hub, click Discovery > Scenario Planner.
    Scenario planner option
  4. On the Scenario Planner landing page, click Create.
    Create a scenario planner simulation
  5. In the Create new Scenario Planner simulation window, complete the following details:
    1. In the Scope list, select Grow/Credit cards.
    2. In the Audience list, select SampledCustomers_Inbound.
    3. In the Name field, click the Edit icon, and then enter Grow_Baseline.
      Create new scenario planner simulation
  6. Click Submit.
    The simulation run that you trigger initiates the next-best-action strategy on 1000 customers. In the current environment, this can take between two and three minutes. Wait until you see that the simulation status is complete.
  7. When the simulation is complete, close the Simulation: Grow_Baseline window.
     
    Simulation completed

2 Create a change request to update the action-level eligibility condition

  1. In the upper-right corner of Customer Decision Hub, click the NBA Designer icon, and then click Switch apps > CDH standard release.
    In a real environment, the Business user initiates a change request to update an action. For training purposes, the NBA Designer initiates the request.  
    Switch apps in BOE
  2. In the navigation pane of 1:1 Operations Manager, click Create > Action update to create a change request for updating an existing offer.
    Action update
  3. In the New operations change request dialog box, configure the details:
    1. In the Name field, enter Update existing actions to represent the change request name.
    2. In the Completion date field, click the Calendar icon and then select a date in the future.
    3. In the Business issue list, select Grow.
    4. In the Group list, select Credit cards.
    5. In the Description field, enter 1. Update the action-level eligibility of Standard card to Relationship length in days 180. 2. Update the action-level eligibility of Rewards card to Relationship length in days 180.
    6. Click Create to specify the details of the actions.
      Change request to update actions
  4. In the Specify details for update existing action section, select the following checkboxes:
    1. Standard card
    2. Rewards card
  5. Click Continue to select the tasks for each action.
  6. In the Detail update for selected actions section, in the Rewards card row, click the Edit > Edit engagement policy to edit the engagement policies.
    Edit engagement policy
  7. In the Edit action: Rewards card, select Use condition builder.
    Use condition buuilder
  8. In the Eligibility section, update the Relationship length in days condition to Relationship length in days ≤ 180.
    Update eligibility
  9. Click Submit.
  10. Confirm that the status of the Rewards card is Edited.
    Update status
  11. Repeat steps 6-10 to edit the Standard card engagement policies and update the eligibility condition to Relationship length in days ≤ 180.
  12. In the Detail updates for selected Actions section, click the Edited status to see the elements that you edited.
    Edit details
  13. Click Continue to review the updates.
  14. Review the updates, and then click Finish.
  15. In the upper-right corner, click the user profile image, and then select Log off to sign out as the NBA Designer.

3 Prioritize the created change request

  1. Log in to 1:1 Operations Manager as a Team Lead:
    1. In the User name field, enter TeamLead. 
    2. In the Password field, enter rules.
  2. In the navigation pane of 1:1 Operations Manager, click Change Requests to view the list of change requests.
  3. In the list of change requests, click Update existing actions.
  4. In the To do list, in the Rank change request task, click Go to open the task.
    Rank the request
  5. In the Rank change request section, in the Rank field, enter 1.
    Enter rank
  6. Click Submit to submit the rank.
  7. In the To do list, in the Assign build stage peer-reviewers task, click Go to open the task.
    Assign peer reviewers
  8. Click Submit to skip the addition of peer reviewers to the change request.
    Note: You add a peer-reviewer by using the Stakeholders widget in the Launching a new offer challenge.
  1. In the upper-right corner, click the user profile image, and then select Log off to sign out as the Team Lead.

4 Complete the action build tasks

  1. Log in to Customer Decision Hub as a Next-Best-Action Designer:
    1. In the User name field, enter NBADesigner.
    2. In the Password field, enter rules.
  2. In the upper-right corner of Customer Decision Hub, click the NBA Designer icon, and then select Switch portal > 1:1 Operations Manager, and then click OK to confirm the switch to Operations Manager.
  3. In the navigation pane of 1:1 Operations Manager, click Change Requests to view the list of change requests.
  4. In the list of change requests, click Update existing actions.
  5. In the Update engagement policy details task for the Rewards card, click the More > Assign to myself.
  6. In the Update engagement policy details task, click Go to begin the task.
  7. In the Update engagement policy details section, confirm that the Relationship length in days ≤ 180 eligibility condition is displayed, and then click Continue.
  8. In the Prepare validation section, click Continue.
  9. In the Run validation section, click Continue.
  10. Click Finish.
  11. In the Review all completed tasks in build stage task, click the More > Assign to myself.
  12. In the Review all completed tasks in build stage task, click Go to begin the task.
  13. In the Review all completed tasks in build stage, click Submit to complete the review step.
  14. In the header of the case type, click the Expand icon, and then click Update existing actions to return to the change request.
    Navigate to the change request
  15. Repeat steps 6-14 to complete the changes for the Standard card.
  16. In the header of the case type, click the Expand icon, and then click Update existing actions to return to the change request.
    Test
    Note: The Build stage is now complete. As a result, the change request enters the Test stage. The NBA Designer can proceed now with simulations to test the changes.

5 Create a Scenario Planner simulation for modified engagement policy conditions

  1. In the upper-right corner of 1:1 Operations Manager click the user icon, and then select Switch portal > Customer Decision Hub.
    Portal switching to CDH
  2. Click OK to confirm the switch to Customer Decision Hub.
    P
  3. In the navigation pane of Customer Decision Hub, click Discovery > Scenario Planner.
  4. On the Scenario Planner landing page, click Create.
  5. In the Create new Scenario Planner simulation window, complete the following details:
    1. In the Scope list, select Grow/Credit cards
    2. In the Audience list, select SampledCustomers_Inbound.
    3. In the Name field, click the Edit icon, and then enter Grow_Simulation.
      Create a new scenario planner simulation
  6. Click Submit.
    The simulation run that you trigger initiates the next best action strategy on 1000 customers. In the current environment, this can take between two and three minutes. Wait until you see that the simulation status is complete.
  7. When the simulation is complete, close the Simulation: Grow_Simulation window.

6 Analyze the simulation results in Scenario Planner

  1. Question: What is the effect of applying the eligibility condition? Is there any indication of an opportunity cost or opportunity gain?
    1. In the Scenario Planner window, in the Scope list, select Grow/Credit cards.
    2. In the Simulation list, select Grow_Baseline (S-#####).
      Scenario planner scope
    3. In the Comparison simulation list, select Grow_Simulations (S-#####).
    4. Click Apply.
    5. Inspect the results.
      Scenario planner simulation results
      Note: The Monte Carlo data set generates a mock data set. As a result, different simulation runs have different results.
      In this example, the Scenario Planner projects that the value capture for the baseline simulation without engagement policy changes is $6.23K. The projected value capture of the simulation after the engagement policy changes is $6.70K. In this example, there is an opportunity cost involved as there is a difference of $466.59.
  1. Question: How does the modification of eligibility condition affect the percentage of accepts?
    1. In the Projected responses (next run/presentation) tile, click the Graph icon to view the difference in the percentage of accepts.
      Projected response graph
      Note: In this example, the projected response for the simulation without engagement policy changes is 416. The projected response for the simulation with engagement policy changes is 471. The projected responses increase when the engagement policy changes are applied.
  1. Question: Which actions trade off if the bank does not apply the engagement policy changes, and what is the volume?
    1. In the Projected reach column, review the projected reach for each action.
      Projected reach values for actions
      Note: In this example, you can see that the one additional Premier Rewards card and 9 additional Rewards Plus card offers are displayed in green. The 56 fewer Rewards cards and 8 fewer Standard cards are red.
  1. Question: How often is the Rewards card sent or displayed to customers before and after applying the engagement policy?
    Projected response values of Rewards card
    Note: The Rewards card is sent or displayed 67 times before the engagement policy changes are applied.
  1. Click the Grow_Simulation (S-#####) tab to view the results of the simulation with engagement policy changes applied.
    Scenario planner tabs for simulations
  2. In the Projected reach column, review the projected reach per action.
    Rewards card projected values reach without levers
Note: The Rewards card is sent or presented 123 times when the engagement policy changes are applied, 56 more than the scenario with no engagement policy changes.
  1. Question: How many customers are likely to accept the Rewards Plus card when the engagement policy changes are applied?
    Note: The projected response is the number of expected accepts per card. 62 customers are likely to accept the Rewards Plus card when the engagement policy changes are applied. That is, one fewer acceptance than the scenario without engagement policy changes.
    Projected responses value for Rewards Plus in comparison mode
    Note: When the adaptive model of an action does not have enough data projection to predict, the system indicates that there is insufficient evidence.
  1. Question: Which action generates the biggest opportunity cost when the engagement policy changes apply?
    1. Click the Rewards Plus card.
    2. Inspect the Projected value capture section to determine the cost of levers for this action.
      Projected value capture for Rewards Plus action
      Note: The Rewards Plus card generates the biggest opportunity cost when you apply the engagement policy changes. The cost is equal to $44.95.
    3. Click Credit cards to return to the previous screen.
      Return to previous screen
  1. Question: Which action generates the biggest opportunity gain when the engagement policy changes apply?
    1. Observe the actions where the projected reach has increased (indicated in green).
    2. Click the Standard card.
    3. Inspect the Projected value capture section to determine the cost-modifying engagement policy for this action.
      When the adaptive model of an action does not have enough data projection to predict, the system indicates that there is insufficient evidence.
      Projected value capture for Standard card
    4. Click the Rewards card.
    5. Inspect the Projected value capture section to determine the cost-modifying engagement policy for this action.
      Projected value capture for Rewards card
      Note: The Rewards card generates the biggest opportunity gain when you apply engagement policy changes. The gain is $482.43.
    6. Click Credit cards to return to the previous screen.
  1. Question: Which scenario is more profitable for the business?
    1. Inspect the Projected value capture tile, and then note the opportunity gain indicated in green.
      Projected value capture with opportunity gain
    2. Inspect the Projected responses tile, and then note the increase in projected responses indicated in green.
      Projected responses with value gain
      Note: In this example, the scenario with engagement policy changes is more profitable as the projected value capture is higher by $466.59.

This Challenge is to practice what you learned in the following Module:


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